MarketSurfing.Com
	"Where any investor can ride the waves."
	2004 Return 29.46%
	2005 Return 11.12%
	Last updated:
	1/27/2006
	Current Color Day
	17 Above
	Moving Average
	2006 MarketSurfing (C Fund) ROI to date:
	10.80%
	2006 ROI leaving funds untouched in stock fund to date:
	17.67%
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	Willis@Networld.com
	Have you ever noticed that on some “good news” days the market goes down and on other “Bad News” days the market goes up?
	There are cycles and momentums in the market, and even though news can affect the direction of the market short term; it seldom changes the direction long term.
	The charts below show the Government’s S&P 500 Fund (C fund), and the Bond Fund (F fund), and how each affects the other’s movements, cycles and momentum.
	These "waves" as we call them can help you decide when to be invested in stocks or when to have your money in safer capital retention treasury funds.
	Stock & Bond Spread
	This is the most important chart to watch, this chart allows you to see the waves in market momentum.
	This chart shows the daily spread between the government’s Stock and Bond funds.
	When the spread between these funds gets larger there is pressure for stocks to fall.  When the spread reduces then stocks become a greater bargain.
	The simplest rule is that green means we are in a buy long trend.  Red means we are in an overvalued or declining stock trend.
	Moving Average
	This system uses a seven day moving average that signal change in direction.
	At the end of an UP trend, the first day that clearly breaks below the moving average is a sell signal.
	At the end of a DOWN trend, the first day that clearly breaks above the moving average is a buy signal.
	Trends and Indicators
	There are a few trends that we have noticed that may help you decide when to get on and off the waves.
	The change in direction indicators, or buy and sell signals, are only that…signals.
	The 2 or 3 days after a signal are often very volatile, with “bounce backs” and “rebounds."
	Overvalued to Undervalued Ranges
	This chart also shows when the entire spread is anywhere from “extremely undervalued” to “extremely overvalued.”
	The headings for these ranges are found on the far left end of each graph.
	The normal trading range is between “very undervalued” to “very overvalued.”
	Bond Fund (F)
	This reflects the Government’s Bond Fund (F-fund), which tracks the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Fund.
	This chart is set up to show either a 60 day moving average (if next long term move is sell) or 80 day moving average (if next long term move is buy)
	These averages have historically given the best indicators of when to be in stocks (on up trend), or be in cash (on down trends).
	Stocks and bonds are inversely related, and are hedged against each other.  Rising interest rates will cause fewer businesses to borrow and expand.
	When the economy is "down," people buy low-interest, risk-averse bonds.  When the market seems safe, people tend to buy risky, but higher-paying, stocks.
	Stock Fund (C)
	This reflects the Governments Stock Fund (C-fund), which tracks the S&P 500.
	This chart is colored in Green and Red to show the exact results if you had followed every Buy and Sell signal from the “Stock and Bond Spread” chart.
	Questions or comments?
	Willis@Networld.com